中国国家主席习近平将在 9 月底访问美国之前对埃及进行罕见的国事访问，, 可能还会对印度, 进行国事访问。
Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to make rare state visits to Egypt and, likely India, before his expected trip to the U.S. in late September.
近年来，习近平"大幅减少了出国旅行,，因此他即将到来的繁忙旅行日程是他优先事项的重要指标," Teneo, 董事总经理加布里埃尔·维尔道, 在一封电子邮件中告诉 CNBC。
Xi has "sharply curtailed foreign travel in recent years, so his busy upcoming travel schedule is a significant gauge of his priorities," Gabriel Wildau, managing director at Teneo, told CNBC in an email.
今年迄今为止，中国领导人仅出国一次:，他于六月对朝鲜进行了七年来的首次国事访问。同时。美国智库战略与国际研究中心指出，世界已来到中国,，包括美国总统唐纳德·特朗普—在内的20多位领导人—上半年访问北京,。
The Chinese leader this year has so far only ventured abroad once: a state visit in June to North Korea for the first time in seven years. Meanwhile. the world has come to China, with more than 20 leaders — including U.S. President Donald Trump — visiting Beijing in the first half of the year, pointed out U.S.-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies.
随着伊朗战争, 美中贸易紧张局势以及人工智能带来的日益严重的安全风险，全球风险仅上升,。对于北京, 来说， 正在为其全球角色的演变构建案例。
The global stakes have only risen, with the Iran war, U.S.-China trade tensions and growing security risks from artificial intelligence. For Beijing, that的 building the case for an evolution in its global role.
"中国可能是时候承担更大的责任,提供更多的全球公共产品,"中国社会科学院,国家智库国际政治研究室主任赵海,表示。
"It的 time for China to probably take bigger responsibility, provide more global public goods," said Hai Zhao, a director of international political studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a state-affiliated think tank.
"因为中国的深度融入全球经济,中国是解决方案不可或缺的一部分,"他说,无论是的供应链安全,石油流经霍尔木兹海峡还是网络安全。
"Because of China的 deep integration into the global economy, China is an integral part of the solution," he said, whether it的 supply chain security, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz or cybersecurity.
习近平于周日抵达比什凯克, 吉尔吉斯斯坦,。该国将于周一和周二主办以安全为重点的上海合作组织峰会。一年一度的活动聚集了俄罗斯,印度和其他非西方国家的首脑。
Xi landed in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on Sunday. The country is hosting the security-focused Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit Monday and Tuesday. The annual event gathers the heads of Russia, India and other non-Western nations.
预计习近平随后将出席将于 9 月 12 日至 13 日在新德里举行的另一次非西方领导人'峰会, 金砖国家,。中国尚未确认 Xi 是否参加。这将是习近平自 2019 年以来、2020 年两国发生致命边境冲突后首次访问印度。
Xi is then expected to attend another non-Western leaders summit, BRICS, which will be held in New Delhi from Sept. 12 to Sept.13. China has yet to confirm Xi的 participation. It would be Xi的 first visit to India since 2019 and after the deadly border clashes between the two countries in 2020.
华盛顿正在注视着
Washington is watching
专家表示，美国将关注上海合作组织和金砖国家峰会的进展,，因为它希望改善与印度和中国的关系，但计划对俄罗斯采取更强硬的态度，以结束莫斯科'与乌克兰的战争。
Experts said the U.S. will be monitoring developments at the SCO and BRICS summits, as it looks to improve ties with India and China but plans to get tougher on Russia to bring an end to Moscow的 war with Ukraine.
去年,，当美国对北京和新德里,征收关税时，习近平,印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪和俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京在天津上合组织峰会上一起欢笑的视频在网上疯传。
Last year, as the U.S. imposed tariffs against Beijing and New Delhi, a clip of Xi, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin laughing together at the SCO summit in Tianjin went viral.
这次会议引起了华盛顿,的愤怒，特朗普声称"让印度和俄罗斯输给了最深的,最黑暗的,中国。"
The meeting drew the ire of Washington, with Trump claiming that it had "lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China."
从那以后发生了很多变化。今年2月,特朗普宣布将对印度的关税从50%,下调至18%，两国正在进行贸易协议谈判。特朗普还在今年早些时候对中国进行了具有里程碑意义的访问,，预计习近平将在金砖国家峰会后于 9 月, 访问华盛顿。
A lot has changed since. In February this year, Trump announced that he would scale back the tariffs on India to 18% from 50%, and the two countries are in the process of negotiating a trade deal. Trump also made a landmark visit to China earlier this year, and Xi is expected to visit Washington in September, after the BRICS summit.
但如果美国众议院通过惩罚购买俄罗斯石油的国家的格雷厄姆法案,，印度和中国仍面临华盛顿征收高达100%关税的威胁。根据 Kpler 数据，6 月和 7 月, 超过 50% 的印度的 原油供应来自俄罗斯，截至上周, 约为 43%。
But India and China still face threats of up to 100% tariffs from Washington if the U.S. House passes the Graham bill, which punishes countries buying Russian oil. More than 50% of India的 crude supplies originated from Russia in June and July, and were around 43% as of last week, according to Kpler data.
"莫迪和普京之间明显的热情""可能会影响总统的[特朗普]对使用潜在的新二级关税当局,"印度的购买俄罗斯石油的购买俄罗斯石油,理查德·M·罗斯,印度和新兴亚洲经济问题高级顾问兼主席,的计算。,告诉CNBC。
"Visible warmth" between Modi and Putin "could shape the President的 [Trump] calculations over using potential new secondary tariff authorities," over India的 purchases of Russian oil, Richard M. Rossow, senior advisor and chair on India and Emerging Asia Economics at CSIS, told CNBC.
与此同时,专家预计新德里将利用其在上海合作组织和金砖国家峰会上的存在来凸显其多极联盟的力量。印度比俄罗斯或中国更接近美国,，但印度将利用上合组织和金砖国家向华盛顿表明它还有其他合作伙伴, 他们说。
Meanwhile, experts expect New Delhi to use its presence at the SCO and BRICS summits to highlight the strength of its multi-polar alignment. India is much closer to the U.S. than Russia or China, but it will use the SCO and BRICS to show Washington that it has other partners, they said.
印度方面, 通过这些会议, 将向美国传达这样的信息："如果你继续保持不确定性，就会付出代价," Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, 欧亚集团, 南亚业务负责人告诉 CNBC。
The Indian side, through these meetings, will convey to the U.S. that "there will be a price if you continue to remain uncertain," Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, South Asia practice head at Eurasia Group, told CNBC.
象龙探戈
Elephant-dragon tango
在上海合作组织会议,之后，习近平和莫迪预计将在新德里举行金砖国家峰会。
After their SCO meeting, Xi and Modi are expected to meet in New Delhi for the BRICS summit.
去年莫迪在天津会晤后，这两个邻国之间的关系比去年有所改善。印度和中国之间的直飞航班已经恢复,，一些古老的丝绸之路贸易路线已经开通,，并且印度在三月份放宽了有关北京投资的规定。
The ties between the two neighbors have improved over the last year after Modi and meeting in Tianjin last year. Direct flights have resumed between India and China, a few old Silk Road trade routes have opened, and in March India relaxed rules around investment from Beijing.
上周, 双方还同意致力于解决长期存在的边界争端。然而,双方之间的问题还远没有解决。据当地媒体报道,印度商人和高管在获得中国签证方面面临"重大困难"。
Last week, the two sides also agreed to work on resolving their long-standing border disputes. Yet, the issues between the two sides are far from resolved. According to local media reports, Indian businessmen and executives are facing "significant difficulties" in getting Chinese visas.
"很高兴看到印中紧张局势仅限于贸易和签证!" Rossow 告诉 CNBC, 并补充说，这比之前的军事对抗有所改善。
"It is good to see India-China tensions confined to trade and visas!" Rossow told CNBC, adding that it is an improvement over the earlier military confrontation.
双方正在努力平衡商业联系,专家表示。
The two sides are trying to balance commercial linkages, experts said.
印度在放宽对中国企业的投资规则, 的同时，也对印度更接近自给自足的行业的商品实施了一些贸易限制。与此同时,中国对向印度转让技术持谨慎态度，因为这可能会削弱北京'在全球关键供应链中的作用。
While India is easing investment rules for Chinese firms, it is also imposing some trade restrictions on goods in sectors where India is closer to self-sufficiency. Meanwhile, China is wary of technology transfers to India as it could undermine Beijing的 role in key global supply chains.
以印度,为例，在苹果公司开始将其制造基地从中国转移出去之后，,已经成为苹果智能手机的主要供应商。据印度政府,称，该国已经是世界'第二大手机制造商。
India, for example, is already emerging as a key supplier for Apple smartphones after the company started diversifying its manufacturing base away from China. As per the Indian government, the country is already the world的 second-largest mobile phone maker.
中美科技焦点
U.S.-China tech focus
技术正迅速成为华盛顿特习峰会的关键问题, D.C., 预计将于 9 月 24 日举行。中国尚未正式确认访问。双方高级官员上周在北京会面—，特朗普政府就中国据称在资助伊朗方面发挥的作用发表了强硬言论。
Technology is rapidly emerging as a critical issue for the Trump-Xi summit in Washington, D.C., expected Sept. 24. China has not officially confirmed a visit. Senior officials from both sides met in Beijing last week — amid tough talk from the Trump administration over China的 alleged role in financing Iran.
中国人民政治协商会议全国委员会,主席王沪宁,上周也在北京会见了美国代表，进行"Track 1.5"半官方对话,，部分由洛克菲勒创立的非营利性亚洲协会牵头。其首席执行官陆克文表示，会议讨论了美中人工智能护栏以及全球癌症研究双边合作的可能性。
Wang Huning, chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People的 Political Consultative Conference, last week also met with U.S. delegates in Beijing for a "Track 1.5" semi-official dialogue, led in part by the Rockefeller-founded nonprofit Asia Society. Its CEO Kevin Rudd said the meeting discussed the possibility of U.S.-China AI guardrails and bilateral collaboration on global cancer research.
如果日益强大的大型语言模型落入 " 坏人之手，这将对美国和中国以及全球经济造成巨大损害," 赵说。他预计两国领导人还可以建立一个机制来指导人工智能发展,，同时延长关税休战期对于双边稳定至关重要。
If increasingly powerful large language models fall "into the wrong hands it will be very damaging both to the U.S. and China and to the global economy," Zhao said. He expects the two leaders could also set up a mechanism to guide AI development, while extending a truce on tariffs will be critical for bilateral stability.
但 Teneo的 Wildau 并不那么乐观,，因为"人们普遍相信人工智能开发是一场零和游戏。"
But Teneo的 Wildau was less optimistic, given "widespread conviction that AI development is a zero-sum game."
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