你好,，这是伊芙琳,，从北京给您写信。欢迎阅读最新一期的《中国连线—》，其中概述了我'm 在当地企业的所见所闻。
Hi, this is Evelyn, writing to you from Beijing. Welcome to the latest edition of The China Connection — a snapshot of what I'm seeing and hearing from local businesses.
随着越来越多的中国企业将目光投向海外，, 的外国企业开始考虑是否应该留下来。一家咨询巨头有一些非传统的原因来解释为什么答案是肯定的。
As more Chinese companies than ever look outside China, foreign businesses wonder whether they should stay. A consulting giant has some unconventional reasons for why the answer is yes.
大故事
The big story
中国不会走向日本式的停滞—或即将与美国脱钩, 麦肯锡的 Nick Leung 和 Joe Ngai 在他们的新书中写道, "下一个中国仍然是中国: 业内人士的 新时代制胜手册。"
China is not headed for Japan-style stagnation — or about to see major decoupling from the U.S., McKinsey的 Nick Leung and Joe Ngai wrote in their new book, "The Next China Is Still China: An Insider的 Playbook for Winning in the New Era."
它们提供的业务框架与当前的评估完全不同: 中国消费者疲软, 长期的房地产拖累和供应链多元化。
They offer a business framework quite different from current assessments: a sluggish Chinese consumer, a prolonged real estate drag and supply chain diversification.
他们说，关键因素? 中国 在全球制造业中占据主导地位，并在支出方面追赶前沿技术,。从许多方面来看，对于许多曾经在中国享有巨大优势的美国和欧洲公司来说，这场盛宴似乎已经结束。
A key factor? China的 global manufacturing dominance and spending to catch up on frontier technology, they said. In many ways it seems that the party has ended for many U.S. and European corporations that once enjoyed a big advantage in China.
跨国公司需要认识到的是，他们今天的失望是对比— 20年来在中国市场份额占据主导地位,的结果，有时比其他外国市场更大, Ngai,麦肯锡'大中华区办事处的高级合伙人兼主席,上周告诉我。
What multinationals need to realize is their disappointment today is a result of a contrast — 20 years of market share dominance in China, sometimes bigger than in other foreign markets, Ngai, senior partner and chairman of McKinsey的 offices in Greater China, told me last week.
中国本土竞争对手也常常感到失望,，他说, 指出经济放缓中的过度竞争, 或内卷,。
Local Chinese rivals are also often disappointed, he said, pointing to hyper-competition, or involution, in the slowing economy.
赢得长期胜利, Ngai 表示，, 需要在中国投资才能在巨大的消费市场 — 中保持相关性，从而在中国公司正在扩张的其他国家中保持竞争力。
Winning longer term, Ngai said, requires investing in China to stay relevant in a giant consumer market — and consequently competitive in other countries where Chinese companies are expanding.
人工智能驱动的教育产品就是其中之一。 Lingverse 首席运营官 Anita Wang 告诉我，该公司计划今年秋天在美国正式推出猫头鹰主题的阅读伴侣。她说，该团队还在与佛罗里达州的一些学区进行洽谈，以便在实地考察和其他活动中使用其人工智能学习设备。
AI-powered educational products is one area. Lingverse COO Anita Wang told me the company plans to officially launch its owl-themed reading companion in the U.S. this fall. She said the team is also speaking with some Florida school districts to use its AI-powered learning device during field trips and other activities.
尽管全球经济快速增长，中国企业也面临着重大挑战。饮料和廉价饮料连锁店 Mixue 的门店数量很快就达到了 Dunkin Donuts 的四倍。但上周，由于销售成本增长快于收入,，上半年利润下降了 14.7%，股价暴跌。
Chinese companies also face significant challenges despite rapid global growth. Beverage and budget drinks chain Mixue has quickly opened four times the number of stores as Dunkin Donuts. But shares tumbled last week after cost of sales grew faster than revenue, for a 14.7% profit drop in the first half of the year.
自大流行以来,中国'的零售额增长速度不到前几年的一半。星巴克已出售其本地业务的多数股权,，而其他美国巨头则因地缘政治紧张局势而缩减规模。
Since the pandemic, China的 retail sales have grown at less than half the pace seen in years prior. Starbucks has sold a majority stake in its local operations, while other U.S. giants have downsized amid geopolitical tensions.
Ngai 表示，许多外国企业正在与中国私募股权公司讨论当地合作伙伴关系,，但目前"更多的是在进行讨论，而不是达成交易。"
Ngai said many foreign businesses are speaking with Chinese private equity firms about local partnerships, but right now there are "more discussions going on rather than deals being struck."
每个行业都是不同的,，科技等领域比其他领域更敏感，需要自己的护栏。但麦肯锡'的地区领导人写道，许多企业高管—在近年来努力寻找替代方案后—得出的结论是，中国将难以忽视。
Every industry is different, with areas like tech more sensitive than others and requiring their own guardrails. But McKinsey的 regional leaders write that the conclusion for many business executives — after a hard search for alternatives in recent years — is that China will be hard to ignore.
— CNBC的 Jenny Lee 对本报告做出了贡献。
— CNBC的 Jenny Lee contributed to this report.
需要知道
Need to know
惠普与被列入美国黑名单的华为合作，为中国公司的 WiFi 技术提供授权
HP partners with U.S.-blacklisted Huawei for licensing the Chinese company的 WiFi tech
美国个人计算和打印公司惠普签署了一项多年期全球协议，授权中国电信巨头华为的某些 WiFi 专利。该交易是在两家公司发生专利纠纷之后达成的。
U.S.-based personal computing and printing firm HP has signed a multi-year global agreement for licensing certain WiFi patents from Chinese telecoms giant Huawei. The deal comes after a patent dispute involving the companies.
中国27%的超级富豪逃离新加坡。现在他们想回来
China的 super-rich fled Singapore. Now they want to come back
家族办公室顾问和财富管理机构表示，他们发现富裕的中国客户对新加坡重新产生了兴趣，这些客户已将生活转移到其他金融中心,，因为北京方面加强的审查和地缘政治动荡使其稳定性看起来再次具有吸引力。
Family-office advisers and wealth managers say they are seeing renewed interest in Singapore from affluent Chinese clients who had shifted their lives to other financial centers, as tightening scrutiny from Beijing and geopolitical turmoil make its stability look attractive again.
Z.ai发布仅在中国芯片上运行的新人工智能模型后股价飙升
Z.ai shares surge after releasing new AI model running only on Chinese chips
该公司声称使用100,000中国制造的芯片来处理所有对GLM-5.3-Flash的在线请求。据 Counterpoint 称，Z.ai 可能会使用华为 Ascend 以及其他芯片供应商,。与此同时，人工智能竞争对手 DeepSeek 已转向外部投资者为其日益增长的雄心, 提供资金，而量化母公司 High-Flyer 已在中国'最热门的硬科技 IPO,（从芯片到机器人）中获得了分配。
The company claimed it used 100,000 China-made chips to handle all online requests for GLM-5.3-Flash. Z.ai is likely using Huawei Ascend along with other chip suppliers, according to Counterpoint. AI rival DeepSeek has meanwhile turned to outside investors to fund its growing ambitions, while quant parent High-Flyer has secured allocations across some of China的 hottest hard-tech IPOs, from chips to robotics.
Coming up
8月30日至9月3:中国国家主席习近平将出席上海合作组织比什凯克峰会,对吉尔吉斯斯坦、埃及进行国事访问
Aug. 30 - Sept. 3: Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Bishkek, make state visits to Kyrgyzstan and Egypt
9月1: Shein IPO预计
Sept. 1: Shein IPO expected
9月1:评级狗中国制造业PMI
Sept. 1: RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI
9月3:RatingDog中国服务业PMI
Sept. 3: RatingDog China Services PMI
9 月 7 日: 华为 Mate XT 2 三折 (Apple iPhone 9 月 9 日发布)
Sept. 7: Huawei Mate XT 2 trifold (Apple iPhone launch Sept. 9)
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