唐纳德·特朗普总统计划在白宫接待中国领导人习近平,，赌注极高—，但一些中国观察人士再次将他们的期望保持在较低水平。
President Donald Trump is slated to host Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the White House, and the stakes are sky high — but some China watchers are once again keeping their expectations low.
鉴于美国新计划积极制裁伊朗'的商业伙伴—，伊朗战争可能比以往任何时候都更加严重，'谈判,可能包括中国,迄今为止德黑兰'最大的贸易伙伴。
That的 even as the Iran war could loom larger than ever over the leaders talks, in light of a new U.S. plan to aggressively sanction Iran的 business partners — potentially including China, by far Tehran的 biggest trading partner.
但是，尽管战争有可能扰乱超级大国'脆弱的关系,，但它最终可能只占对话的一小部分,，就像特朗普和习近平四个月前在北京会面时那样。
But while the war threatens to rattle the superpowers fragile relations, it may end up a smaller slice of the conversation, as it appeared to be when Trump and Xi met in Beijing four months ago.
在那次峰会,上，特朗普和一小群企业领导人受到了中国人的盛情款待，但在包括伊朗和台湾在内的最棘手的地缘政治问题,上几乎没有达成任何具体的商业协议或明显突破。
At that summit, Trump and a coterie of corporate leaders were lavishly feted by the Chinese but left with few concrete business deals or clear breakthroughs on the thorniest geopolitical issues, including Iran and Taiwan.
这次, 双方似乎仍然有兴趣避免采取可能破坏当前贸易休战的举措。
This time, both sides still seem interested in avoiding moves that would risk torpedoing their current trade truce.
"这种关系越来越多地产生没有信任和稳定、没有结算的交易," 无党派保卫民主基金会, 克雷格·辛格尔顿, 中国高级总监, 告诉 CNBC。
"The relationship increasingly produces transactions without trust and stability without settlement," Craig Singleton, senior director for China at the nonpartisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told CNBC.
他说，的 " 一次低期望的峰会主要侧重于管理僵局，而不是解决问题,"。
It的 "a low-expectations summit focused largely on managing the stalemate rather than resolving it," he said.
习近平的华盛顿之行定于 9 月 24,，尽管中国尚未正式确认此次访问。
Xi的 trip to Washington is slated for Sept. 24, although China has not officially confirmed the visit.
本周在北卡罗来纳州举行的'G20财长'峰会让我们看到了两国之间的曙光:中国是唯一对联合声明持不同意见的成员,反对敦促"拥有过度和持续外部盈余的国家"停止扭曲贸易的段落。
This week的 G20 finance ministers summit in North Carolina gave a glimpse at the daylight between the two countries: China was the only member to dissent from a joint statement, objecting to a paragraph urging "countries with excessive and persistent external surpluses" to stop distorting trade.
据财政部称，中国还对有关伊朗战争的措辞提出异议,。财政部长斯科特·贝森特周二坚称，在伊朗,问题上，各国有很多共识，但表示'"中国"有责任找到解决方案。
China also took issue with language about the Iran war, according to the Treasury Department. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday maintained that the countries have much to agree on when it comes to Iran, but said it的 "incumbent upon China" to find a solution.
据 MS NOW 周三, 援引四名知情人士的消息称，白宫计划为习近平举办正式国宴,。迄今为止，只有英国'国王查尔斯三世在特朗普'第二个任期内接受过类似待遇, MS NOW 报道。
The White House is planning to host a formal state dinner for Xi, MS NOW reported Wednesday, citing four sources familiar with the matter. Only Britain的 King Charles III has received similar treatment during Trump的 second term so far, MS NOW reported.
特朗普'自上而下的风格,倾向于领导人对领导人的交易，而不是前任政府,典型的外交"黑桃工作"，这也降低了预期,无党派大西洋理事会'斯考克罗夫特战略与安全中心的高级研究员马修·克罗尼格,说。
Trump的 top-down style, which favors leader-to-leader dealmaking over the diplomatic "spade work" typical of prior administrations, is also dampening expectations, said Matthew Kroenig, a senior fellow at the nonpartisan Atlantic Council的 Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.
"Trump 会去那里与习近平进行对话，看看会产生什么结果," Kroenig 告诉 CNBC。
"Trump的 going to go in there and have a conversation with Xi and see what comes out of it," Kroenig told CNBC.
他们可能会公布关键可交付成果,，他说, "但如果是这样,，这将是非常重要的,，然后将由政府制定细节。"
They could emerge with announcements on key deliverables, he said, "But if so, it would be very top line, and then it would be up to the governments to work out the details."
尽管如此，, 华盛顿峰会对于世界 个顶级经济体, 来说是一个重要时刻，这些经济体正在一个高度不稳定的世界中争夺主导地位，这个世界以多场战争和人工智能重塑的全球经济为特点。
Nonetheless, the Washington summit is a major moment for the world的 top economies, which are vying for dominance in a highly unstable world marked by multiple active wars and a global economy being reshaped by artificial intelligence.
贝森特周二证实，人工智能将被列入特朗普和习近平会面的议程上。
Bessent confirmed Tuesday that AI will be on the agenda when Trump and Xi meet.
白宫发言人奥利维亚·威尔士在一份声明中告诉 CNBC，特朗普 " 与习主席关系密切，并于 5 月对北京进行了一次愉快的访问,，他在那里达成了重要协议，这些协议将推动高薪就业并为美国商品打开新市场。"
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales told CNBC in a statement that Trump "has a strong relationship with President Xi and had a great visit to Beijing in May, where he secured important agreements that will drive high-paying jobs and open new markets for American goods."
声明称，"特朗普总统期待习主席'在9月份对白宫进行历史性访问，并将始终促进美国'的利益,"。
"President Trump looks forward to President Xi的 historic visit to the White House in September and will always advance America的 interests," the statement said.
美国驻华大使戴维·珀杜 (David Perdue) 8 月下旬表示，他与外交官员举行了会谈，为习近平的国事访问做准备。
U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue in late August said he held talks with his diplomatic counterparts in preparation for Xi的 state visit.
中国驻美国大使馆没有立即回应 CNBC 对习近平即将到来的访问发表评论的请求。
The Chinese Embassy in the U.S. did not immediately respond to CNBC的 request for comment on Xi的 upcoming trip.
伊朗因素
The Iran factor
特朗普最初预计伊朗战争将在六周或更短的时间内结束—，到习近平抵达参加峰会时，伊朗战争将接近第七个月。
The Iran war — which Trump initially predicted would wrap up in six weeks or less — will be close to rounding its seventh month by the time Xi is set to arrive for the summit.
战争的既定意图是摧毁伊朗'的核野心,，但它主要集中在霍尔木兹海峡,，这条重要的石油运输路线的交通因伊朗的威胁而受到压制。
The stated intent of the war is to dismantle Iran的 nuclear ambitions, but it has largely centered on the Strait of Hormuz, the vital oil-shipping route that has seen traffic squelched by Iranian threats.
由于达成和平协议的前景似乎遥不可及,，美国正试图通过全面的二级制裁切断伊朗的"促成因素"，从而在经济上扼杀伊朗。
With prospects for a peace deal appearing far out of reach, the U.S. is trying to strangle Iran economically by cutting off its "enablers" through sweeping secondary sanctions.
根据文件,，该战略可能会给中国带来重大影响。事实上，, 北京在 Bessent 于 8 月 24 日公布该计划后不久就立即推迟了这项名为 "Operation Economic Outcast," 的计划,。
On paper, that strategy could pose major consequences for China. Indeed, Beijing promptly pushed back on the plan, dubbed "Operation Economic Outcast," shortly after Bessent unveiled it Aug. 24.
"中国外交部发言人当时表示，中方已多次明确表示坚决反对没有国际法依据、没有联合国安理会授权的非法单边制裁,"。
"China has made clear on many occasions its firm opposition to illicit unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law or the authorization of the UN Security Council," a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said at the time.
但甚至在 Bessent 正式宣布, 之前，一些地缘政治专家就质疑美国愿意多么积极地追击中国。
But even before Bessent的 official announcement, some geopolitics experts questioned how aggressively the U.S. would be willing to go after China.
针对中国银行或其他机构可能会招致报复，从而危及两个超级大国'去年在一场动荡的关税战后开始的贸易缓和,。它还可能威胁美国获得中国大量关键矿产供应。
Targeting Chinese banks or other institutions could invite retaliation that jeopardizes the two superpowers testy trade detente, which began last year after a volatile tariff war. It could also threaten U.S. access to China的 large supply of critical minerals.
无党派战略与国际研究中心研究中国'商业和经济的学者斯科特·肯尼迪,表示，美国"发现自己在面对中国和伊朗,时越来越陷入多重困境"。
The U.S. "is finding itself increasingly between multiple rocks and multiple hard places" vis-a-vis China and Iran, said Scott Kennedy, a scholar on China的 business and economy at the nonpartisan Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"I'm 不确定他们如何轻松解决他们面临的不同外交政策挑战中的各种矛盾," 肯尼迪说。
"I'm not sure how they easily resolve these various contradictions amongst the different foreign policy challenges that they are facing," Kennedy said.
阅读更多 CNBC 政治和政策报道
Read more CNBC politics and policy coverage
克里斯托弗纽波特大学政治学副教授 Taiyi Sun, 表示，这种情况给美国造成了"悖论"
Taiyi Sun, an associate professor of political science at Christopher Newport University, said the situation creates a "paradox" for the U.S.
"每一个更强的选择都会产生一个中国问题,"孙在八月为无党派户田和平研究所撰写的分析中写道。 "对德黑兰具有最大潜在经济影响力的国家也是华盛顿在 9 月峰会之前最不能疏远的国家。"
"Every stronger option creates a China problem," Sun wrote in August in an analysis for the nonpartisan Toda Peace Institute. "The country with the greatest potential economic leverage over Tehran is also the country Washington can least afford to alienate before the September summit."
可以肯定的是, Bessent 在推出制裁计划时表示，中国不会获得豁免, 坚称"没有人能逃脱美国制裁的范围。"
To be sure, Bessent signaled as he rolled out the sanctions plan that China would not be exempt, insisting that "no one is above the reach of U.S. sanctions."
但孙告诉 CNBC，他认为该政策不会像政府宣传的那样实施。
But Sun told CNBC that he doesn't think the policy will be implemented as the administration has advertised.
经济放逐行动是"Trump'在中期选举之前暂时摆脱[Iran]局面的方式," Sun说。
Operation Economic Outcast is "Trump的 way of getting out of the [Iran] situation temporarily before the midterms," Sun said.
他指出，Bessent, 当被问到为什么美国要给各国规定遵守期限，而不是在计划宣布当天实施制裁, 回答, "我为什么要炸毁全球金融体系?"
He noted that Bessent, when asked why the U.S. was giving countries compliance deadlines instead of just imposing sanctions on the day the plan was announced, replied, "Why would I want to blow up the global financial system?"
该言论表明 Bessent " 清楚地了解，如果实际宣布实施,，全球金融体系可能会崩溃," Sun 表示。因此，特朗普政府宁愿闭门与中国打交道,，他说。
The remark shows Bessent "understood clearly that if the actual announcement was implemented, the global financial system could melt down," Sun said. The Trump administration would therefore rather deal with China behind closed doors, he said.
辛格尔顿表示同意。 "伊朗可能会出现,，但我预计它只占对话的一小部分,"，他说。 "财政部在峰会前对中国银行采取重大行动的门槛极高。"
Singleton concurred. "Iran may come up, but I would expect it to occupy only a small part of the conversation," he said. "The threshold for Treasury to take major action against a Chinese bank in the run-up to the summit is extremely high."
中期选举迫在眉睫
Midterms loom
这种动态可能与特朗普'的国内政治逆风,相吻合，因为持续的高消费成本已成为即将到来的美国选举的首要问题。
That dynamic could dovetail with Trump的 domestic political headwinds, as persistent high consumer costs have become a top issue in the upcoming U.S. elections.
习近平将于比赛前不到六周抵达。最新民意调查显示，随着民主党似乎越来越有可能重新夺回至少一个国会众议院的多数控制权，总统的支持率跌至新低。
Xi is set to arrive less than six weeks before those contests. The latest polls show the president的 approval rating sinking to new lows as Democrats appear increasingly likely to retake majority control of at least one chamber of Congress.
根据国会研究服务处的数据，虽然自去年以来美国对中国的平均关税有所下降,，但截至 7 月, 仍保持在 36.5%, 的高水平,。
While the U.S. average tariff rate on China has fallen since last year, it remains elevated, at 36.5%, as of July, according to the Congressional Research Service.
特朗普长期以来一直否认他的关税,（即美国进口商对外国商品征收的税,）提高了美国人的价格。但他似乎默认了上个月末,进口关税的影响，当时他试图通过允许最多300,000吨碎牛肉产品免税进口来解决高牛肉价格问题。
Trump has long denied that his tariffs, which are taxes U.S. importers pay on foreign goods, raise prices on Americans. But he appeared to tacitly acknowledge the impact of the import duties late last month, when he sought to address high beef prices by allowing up to 300,000 metric tons of product for ground beef to be imported tariff-free.
立足北京
Building on Beijing
北京峰会,后，美国和中国均表示有意建立"战略稳定的"建设性"关系。"
After the Beijing summit, the U.S. and China both expressed their intention to build a "constructive" relationship of "strategic stability."
习近平'对美国进行国事访问可能产生的关键成果之一是两国领导人就进一步会晤达成协议, Sun说。
One of the key deliverables that could come out of Xi的 state visit to the U.S. would be an agreement for further meetings between the leaders, Sun said.
"当两位领导人预计前往另一个'国家,时，会前时间将不会那么混乱,"他说。
"When the two leaders have the expectation of traveling to the other的 country, the pre-meeting time will be less tumultuous," he said.
白宫还在 5 月宣布，美国和中国将通过成立 " 贸易委员会" 和 " 投资委员会寻求深化经济关系。"
The White House also announced in May that the U.S. and China would seek to deepen their economic relationship through the creation of a "Board of Trade" and a "Board of Investment."
双方均确认中国将购买200架波音飞机,，不过这个数字比一些投资者的预期要少。美国还宣布中国将购买 $170 亿美元的美国农产品,，但据报道缺乏具体细节导致美国大豆期货交易走低。
And the two sides each confirmed that China would buy 200 Boeing aircraft, though that was fewer than what some investors were expecting. The U.S. additionally announced China would buy $17 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products, but the lack of specifics reportedly sent U.S. soybean futures trading lower.
Singleton 表示，其中一些可交付成果仍未完成, "，包括波音交易和拟议的贸易委员会。"
Singleton said that several of those deliverables remain unfinished, "including the Boeing deal and the proposed Board of Trade."
"双方似乎都不相信领导人级外交会改变对方'的基本战略,"他补充道。
"Neither side appears to believe leader-level diplomacy will change the other的 underlying strategy," he added.
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