您好,，这是伊芙琳,，从新加坡给您写信。欢迎阅读最新一期的《中国连线—》，其中概述了我'm 在当地企业的所见所闻。
Hi, this is Evelyn, writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to the latest edition of The China Connection — a snapshot of what I'm seeing and hearing from local businesses.
几年来，, 消费者支出的低迷已经成为中国各地的许多讨论的基础。相对于持续的出口增长,，国内销售挑战变得更加严峻—并且与全球相关。有没有解决办法?
For a few years now, lackluster consumer spending has underpinned many conversations around China. Against persistent exports growth, the domestic sales challenge has become more stark — and globally relevant. Is there a solution?
大故事
The big story
中国消费者有充分理由保持谨慎。
Consumers in China have good reason to be cautious.
多年来, 他们的可支配收入增长率是美国消费者增长率的两倍以上。Wind 数据可追溯到 2003 年，显示到 2020 年, 居住在中国城市的人们预计每年可支配收入增长约 10% 或更快, 远高于美国 3% 的平均水平。
For years, their disposable income grew at more than twice the rate of consumers in the U.S. Wind data going back to 2003 shows that until 2020, people living in Chinese cities could expect around 10% or faster growth in disposable income every year, far above the 3% average in the U.S.
但在过去几年中， 大幅放缓至 2025, 的 4.3%，仅比美国的 3.8% 好一点。
But that的 slowed drastically in the last several years to 4.3% in 2025, barely better than the U.S. at 3.8%.
, 麦格理的 Larry Hu 在周五的报告, 中指出，一个重要因素是房价大幅下跌。 Hu 表示，自 2021, 房地产价值达到峰值以来，已回落至 2016, 上次出现的水平，抹去了 2012 年至 2021, 期间取得的收益的 85%。
A big factor, Macquarie的 Larry Hu pointed out in a report Friday, is the sharp decline in home prices. Since their peak in 2021, property values have tumbled back to levels last seen in 2016, erasing 85% of the gains made during 2012 to 2021, Hu said.
他说，这个 远比美国房地产泡沫破裂期间 47% 的房价跌幅, 要大得多。
That的 far sharper than the 47% home price drop during the U.S. housing bust, he said.
"历史表明，中国'的房地产市场前景在很大程度上取决于出口,"胡说,指出，"当政策制定者不再依靠出口来推动增长时，"中国'的房地产市场将触底。"
"History suggests that the outlook for China的 housing market depends much on exports," Hu said, noting that "China的 housing market will bottom when policymakers can no longer rely on exports to drive growth."
而这'正是国内挑战引起全球更严格审查的地方。
And that的 where the domestic challenges are attracting greater global scrutiny.
本月在美国举行的二十国集团财长'会议现在加剧了关于中国'的出口和经济政策是否导致其他国家人民失业的争论。
Group of 20 finance ministers meeting in the U.S. this month has now intensified the debate over whether China的 exports and economic policies have cost people in other countries their jobs.
联合声明几乎不加掩饰地呼吁中国"消除限制国内消费的扭曲。"北京反对该段落和其他三段内容。这是唯一一个持异议的 G20 成员,，受到美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特的批评。
The joint statement contained a thinly veiled call for China to "remove distortions that constrain domestic consumption." Beijing objected to that paragraph and three others. It was the only dissenting G20 member, drawing criticism from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
中国 6 月份进口量激增，创五年来最快增速。但随着全球对数据中心使用的中国制造零部件的需求不断增长，这还不足以显着缩小其贸易顺差,。据官方媒体报道，欧洲的热浪也导致空调机组出口量增加了 40%以上25，达到历史新高,。
China的 imports surged in June at their fastest pace in five years. But that hasn't been enough to meaningfully narrow its trade surplus, amid growing global demand for China-made parts used in data centers. A heat wave in Europe has also driven up air conditioning unit exports to the block by more than 40% to a record high, according to state media.
这帮助中国'的出口保持强劲,，尽管美国和欧盟关税,在6月,实现了2021年以来的最大幅度增长，并且在7月超出了预期。
That has helped China的 exports staying strong, despite U.S. and EU tariffs, clocking their sharpest growth since 2021 in June, and beating estimates in July.
中国银行前首席研究员宗良,表示，中国'并没有刻意试图促进出口,。 "发自内心地说,中国今年年初没有预料到这种情况,"他用CNBC翻译的普通话,说道。
China didn't purposely try to boost its exports, said Zong Liang, former chief researcher at the Bank of China. "Speaking from the heart, China at the beginning of this year did not anticipate this situation," he said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC.
虽然宗庆后指出，北京已经宣布了多项刺激内需的政策,，但他警告说，可能需要整整五年才能看到结果,，而且增加家庭收入的挑战可能会更加困难。
While Zong noted Beijing has announced several policies for boosting domestic demand, he cautioned it might take the full five years to see results, and the challenge of increasing household income could be more difficult.
Wind 数据显示，汇率和人口的差异意味着美国人平均口袋里的钱至少比中国人多 10 倍,（绝对值($66,871 vs $6,463),）。
Differences in the exchange rate and population mean the average person in the U.S. has at least 10 times more in their pocket than someone in China, on an absolute basis ($66,871 vs $6,463), Wind data showed.
对于北京'的国家主导经济,来说，一种相对较新的选择,是鼓励更多投资于充斥着新技术的国内股市。
One option, relatively new for Beijing的 state-dominated economy, is encouraging more investment in the domestic stock market flush with new tech names.
"我们希望资本市场能够发展得更好,"宗庆后表示,"并给予消费者相对较高的投资回报和财富效应。"
"We hope capital market can develop better," Zong said, "And give consumers relatively high investment return and wealth effects."
但散户投资者需要时间来克服他们对股市的负面经历,，例如 2015 年的大崩盘，导致沪深 300 指数在一个夏天暴跌超过 40%。
But it will take time for retail investors to get over their negative experiences with the stock market, such as the major crash in 2015 that saw the CSI 300 plunge more than 40% in one summer.
还有一种围绕储蓄和消费的文化心态，这与美国和欧洲的许多地区形成鲜明对比。
There的 also a cultural mentality around saving and consumption that contrasts with many parts of the U.S. and Europe.
根据中国人民银行 2025 年完成的一项调查，当中国消费者确实花费, 时，教育始终排名第一,。
When consumers in China do spend, education consistently ranks first, according to a People的 Bank of China survey completed in 2025.
医疗保健和旅游分别位居第二和第三,。这使得娱乐和购物的排名更加靠后。因此，零售额, 尤其是商品, 如此低迷也就不足为奇了。
Healthcare and travel come second and third, respectively. That pushes entertainment and shopping even lower on the list. So it的 less of a surprise that retail sales, especially for goods, have been so sluggish.
但在全球贸易中超过 75% 构成商品, 的世界中，中国 在制造商品 — 但不购买 — 方面发挥的巨大作用正在引起新的审查。
But in a world where over 75% of global trade constitutes goods, China的 outsized role in making them — but not buying — is drawing new scrutiny.
需要知道
Need to know
Hugging Face'的新款鸭子机器人正在快速销售。中国芯片为其提供动力 一家法美公司生产的一款流行的新型可编程个人机器人，由上海上市公司瑞芯微电子 (Rockchip) 的芯片提供动力，该芯片又使用英国公司 ARM的 tech,，反映出全球科技供应链仍然相互交织。
Hugging Face的 new duck robot is selling fast. A Chinese chip powers it
A popular new programmable personal robot from a French-American company is powered by a chip from Shanghai-listed Rockchip which in turn uses British company ARM的 tech, reflecting how intertwined global tech supply chains remain.
谢因进入股市时摇摇欲坠。它能否恢复魔力? 在该零售商的股票在香港首次亮相时暴跌, 分析师指出，美国和欧盟收紧了此前允许低价值进口商品进入免税, 的规定，这损害了 Shien的商业模式。
Shein has made a shaky stock market entry. Can it get its mojo back?
After shares of the retailer tumbled in their Hong Kong debut, analysts point out the U.S. and EU have tightened rules that previously allowed low-value imports to enter duty-free, hurting Shien的 business model.
中国的 习近平在特朗普峰会前几周与伊朗总统保持距离, 据伊朗官方媒体报道，两位领导人周二在吉尔吉斯斯坦举行的上海合作组织峰会期间会面了几分钟。当被问到,中国'外交部发言人表示习近平"与各国领导人进行了亲切交流。"
China的 Xi keeps Iranian president at arm的 length weeks ahead of Trump summit
The two leaders met for several minutes on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kyrgyzstan on Tuesday, according to Iranian state media. When asked, China的 foreign ministry spokesperson said Xi "had cordial exchanges with leaders of various countries."
Coming up
9月8:贸易数据
Sept. 8: Trade data
9月9: CPI/PPI
Sept. 9: CPI/PPI
9月12-13:金砖国家峰会在新德里举行
Sept. 12-13: BRICS Summit in New Delhi
9月15:零售额,工业生产和固定资产投资数据
Sept. 15: Retail sales, industrial production and fixed-asset investment data
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