跳过噪音。获取下载。
Skip the noise. Get the download.
本报告来自本周的 的技术下载通讯。喜欢你所看到的?你可以在这里订阅。
This report is from this week的 The Tech Download newsletter. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
本周早些时候, Clément Delangue, 初创公司 Hugging Face — 的首席执行官最近受到 OpenAI的 模型 — 的流氓网络攻击，他提出了一个颇具争议的说法：中国正在赢得人工智能竞赛。
Earlier this week, Clément Delangue, the CEO of startup Hugging Face — which was recently on the receiving end of a rogue cyber attack by OpenAI的 models — made the somewhat controversial claim that China was winning the AI race.
"[China is] clearly dominating on open models right now, and I wouldn't be surprised if they start dominating at the frontier either by the end of this year or next year at the rate of progress," the Hugging Face CEO told CNBC earlier this week.
尽管受到尖端人工智能计算 — 的阻碍，美国在这一领域占据主导地位，并试图阻止中国获得 — 中国人工智能模型正在日益缩小与美国前沿系统的性能差距。
Despite being hamstrung by access to cutting edge AI compute — an area in which the U.S. dominates and has looked to block China from getting access to — Chinese AI models are increasingly closing the performance gap with U.S. frontier systems.
Beijing-based Moonshot的 Kimi K3, released in July, edged ever closer to top models from Anthropic and OpenAI in benchmarking, even surpassing them in some areas.随着能力的提升，西方公司越来越多地采用中国人工智能模型。
Beijing-based Moonshot的 Kimi K3, released in July, edged ever closer to top models from Anthropic and OpenAI in benchmarking, even surpassing them in some areas. There的 been growing adoption of Chinese AI models among Western companies as capability has shot up.
And there are other areas in AI which China is also considered to be leading in. The world的 most capable open models – which can be downloaded, modified and self-hosted – are all Chinese, and many experts consider the country to be ahead in robotics.
那么美国在人工智能军备竞赛中输掉了吗?
So is the U.S. losing the AI arms race?
中国的的优势
China的 advantages
虽然落后于前沿,，但中国的 型号已成为美国选项的更便宜且功能强大的替代品。由于大多数人工智能的使用不需要前沿模型能力，2C 的采用率在美国海岸有所上升，据报道在非洲发展中经济体也有所增加。
While lagging behind the frontier, China的 models have emerged as cheaper and highly capable alternatives to U.S. options. With most AI use not requiring frontier model capabilities, adoption has risen on American shores and reportedly in developing economies in Africa.
"根据当前趋势，中国人工智能似乎更有可能成为发展中国家的默认选择," Daniel Remler, 新美国安全中心智库技术和国家安全项目高级研究员, (CNAS), 告诉 CNBC。
"Based on current trends it seems more likely than not that Chinese AI will become the default for developing countries," Daniel Remler, senior fellow, technology and national security program at think tank the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), told CNBC.
这可能会产生深远的影响。
That could have far-reaching consequences.
"如果中国人工智能技术成为发展中国家的默认技术,，这些国家可能更有可能在政治上与北京结盟，而中国人工智能公司将在其市场中占据滩头阵地," Remler 表示。
"If Chinese AI technology becomes the default for developing countries, those countries may be more likely to align themselves politically with Beijing and Chinese AI companies get a beachhead in their markets," Remler said.
中国在人工智能部署的许多领域拥有"显着优势",，包括机器人技术,自动驾驶汽车和国家运营,托尼·布莱尔全球变化研究所科技政策主任基根·麦克布莱德,告诉我。
China has "significant advantages" across many areas where AI will be deployed, including robotics, autonomous vehicles and state operations, Keegan McBride, director of science and technology policy at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, told me.
长期,，如果"制造,机器人,自动化科学基础设施和人工智能支持的国家运作成为从人工智能,获取价值的定义指标,，中国处于有利地位,"他补充道。
Long term, if "manufacturing, robotics, automated scientific infrastructure and AI-enabled state operations become the defining metric for extracting value from AI, China is well positioned," he added.
计算挑战
The compute challenge
但计算对中国来说是一场艰苦的斗争。
But compute is an uphill struggle for China.
"美国目前拥有世界上最强大的模型,强大的技术联盟和压倒性的计算优势," McBride表示。
"The U.S. currently has the most capable models in the world, strong tech alliances and an overwhelming compute advantage," McBride said.
美国的出口管制严重限制了中国人工智能公司'获得最先进芯片的机会。
U.S. export controls have severely limited Chinese AI firms access to the most advanced chips.
"Remler 表示，这不仅削弱了他们训练更大、能力更强的 AI 模型, 的能力，而且还削弱了对这些模型进行推理的能力,"。 Kimi K3 需求激增后，Moonshot 由于容量有限而不得不暂停新订阅。
"This not only undermines their ability to train larger and more capable AI models, but also to serve inference on those models," said Remler. Moonshot had to pause new subscriptions due to limited capacity after demand for Kimi K3 boomed.
尽管如此，, 中国正在努力克服计算限制。
Nevertheless, China is working to overcome compute constraints.
公司被指控在海外获取先进计算,，提炼美国模型并将 Nvidia 芯片走私到该国。其国内芯片产业也在取得进展—，但仍远远落后于美国的。
Companies have been accused of accessing advanced compute overseas, distilling U.S. models and smuggling Nvidia chips into the country. Its own domestic chip industry is also gaining ground — though is still a significant distance behind America的.
美国还有其他有利因素。
The U.S. also has other factors in its favor.
虽然(像中国)一样拥有丰富的能源潜力,，但该国'的私人资本生态系统使Anthropic和OpenAI等公司能够筹集创纪录的资金和规模。人才仍然涌向这个国家。
While it (like China) has abundant energy potential, the country的 private capital ecosystem has allowed companies like Anthropic and OpenAI to raise record funding and scale. Talent still flocks to the country.
"如果美国能够维持这些优势,，它将保留其人工智能优势,严重的地缘政治影响力,以及制定全球人工智能规则的能力,"雷姆勒表示。
"If the United States can sustain these strengths, it will retain its AI advantage, serious geopolitical leverage, and ability to shape global AI rules," said Remler.
但比赛尚未尘埃落定。中国的人工智能系统在全球采用率和能力方面正在达到新的高度。
But the race is anything but settled. Chinese AI systems are reaching new heights in terms of global adoption and capability.
决定性问题不再是中国是否能够在前沿竞争, Dewardric McNeal, Longview Global 董事总经理兼高级政策分析师本月早些时候在 CNBC 的一篇文章中写道。
The defining question is no longer whether China can compete at the frontier, Dewardric McNeal, managing director and senior policyanalyst at Longview Global wrote in an article for CNBC earlier this month.
"美国是否能够足够快地适应，以与日益复杂的中国创新生态系统竞争，该生态系统不仅在模型性能方面取得进步，而且在成本方面也取得了进步,部署,定制,融资,标准,开发人员采用和全球影响力。"
"It is whether the U.S. can adapt quickly enough to compete against an increasingly sophisticated Chinese innovation ecosystem that is advancing not only on model performance but also on cost, deployment, customization, financing, standards, developer adoption and global reach."
News edit
软银公布的第一财季利润超出了市场预期,，这是由于其持有的英特尔, 股份大幅上涨，而字节跳动的 价值的上涨则帮助了其愿景基金部门。
SoftBank reported profit for its fiscal first quarter that beat market expectations, driven by a huge gain on its stake in Intel, while a rise in ByteDance的 value helped its Vision Fund division.
Anthropic的 Mythos 模型创建了虚假的在线身份，因为它试图迫使人类批准对开源项目, 的恶意代码更新，这标志着前沿人工智能系统发起的又一起网络事件。
Anthropic的 Mythos model created fake online identities as it looked to pressure humans into approving malicious code updates to an open source project, marking yet another cyber incident carried out by a frontier AI system.
欧盟获得了检查人工智能模型的新权力, 限制欧盟市场准入和精细模型提供商, 提高了 Anthropic、OpenAI 和 Google 等美国公司的股份
The European Union gained new powers to inspect AI models, restrict EU market access and fine model providers, raising the stakes for U.S. companies like Anthropic and OpenAI and Google
作为公共滋扰案件的一部分，Meta 被勒令向新墨西哥州的一个减排基金支付 245.67 亿美元，该案件只是该公司面临的与其应用程序造成损害相关的众多诉讼之一。
Meta was ordered to pay $567 million into an abatement fund in New Mexico as part of a public nuisance case that的 just one of many suits the company faces related to alleged harms caused by its apps.
随着资金涌入国防技术领域，新一轮融资后，Hadrian 的估值已接近 2480 亿美元。
Hadrian has been valued at nearly $8 billion after fresh funding as money pours into defense tech.
还有一件事
One more thing
Palantir 的股价周二飙升 29.5%，此前该公司报告称，由于客户对人工智能主权工具的需求推动，第二季度收益增长了 22"。
Palantir stock skyrocketed 29.5% on Tuesday after the company reported "otherworldly" second-quarter earnings driven by customer demand for AI sovereign tools.
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