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你好,，这是伊芙琳,，从北京给您写信。欢迎阅读最新一期的《中国连线—》，其中概述了我'm 在当地企业的所见所闻。
Hi, this is Evelyn, writing to you from Beijing. Welcome to the latest edition of The China Connection — a snapshot of what I'm seeing and hearing from local businesses.
中国的科技进步可能会激怒华盛顿，并让华尔街对美国科技股感到担忧。但当谈到中国的替代品,时，外国投资者仍然有选择性。北京'最近的举动揭示了一个原因。
China的 tech advances may rile Washington and worry Wall Street about U.S. tech stocks. But when it comes to Chinese alternatives, foreign investors remain selective. Beijing的 recent moves reveal a reason why.
大故事
The big story
抛开新兴市场风险不谈,，政策沟通的状况让外国投资者犹豫不决。
Emerging market risks aside, it的 the state of policy communication that gives foreign investors pause.
以最近宣布对中国证监会原副主席方星海,进行调查为例。受过斯坦福大学教育的方,，其任期恰逢蚂蚁的巨型 IPO, 突然暂停，在中国的华尔街投资者中尤其出名—，这与中国 反腐败调查的许多其他目标不同。
Just take a recently announced probe into Fang Xinghai, former vice chair of China的 securities regulator. Stanford-educated Fang, whose term coincided with the sudden suspension of Ant的 giant IPO, was particularly well-known among Wall Street investors in China — unlike many other targets of China的 anti-corruption investigations.
自从对方的调查公布后，没有太多细节,，中国的讨论主要集中在他对算法驱动的量化交易—的支持上，这种交易经常因市场损失而引起公众和监管机构的愤怒,，尽管全国人工智能冠军 DeepSeek 是从量化对冲基金 High-Flyer 中崛起的。
In the days since the probe into Fang was announced without much detail, discourse in China has focused on his support for algorithm-driven quantitative trading — which has frequently drawn public and regulatory ire for market losses, despite national AI champion DeepSeek emerging from quant hedge fund High-Flyer.
"这正是沟通可以更好的地方,"美国基金管理公司WisdomTree的量化经理Liqian Ren,说。
"This is exactly where communication can be better," said Liqian Ren, a quantitative manager at U.S.-based fund manager WisdomTree.
"目前对中国来说，第一要务是科技竞争,"她说, "还不是金融市场竞争。"
"Right now for China the number one thing is tech competition," she said, "not yet financial market competition."
自 20 世纪 90 年代艾伦·格林斯潘 (Alan Greenspan) 时代以来，解析美联储关于政策方向的声明一直是美国的一项关键投资技能。瑞银甚至表示，美联储'的前瞻性指引,（目前正在审查,）在过去二十年中降低了市场波动性。
Parsing Fed statements on policy direction has been a key U.S. investment skill since the days of Alan Greenspan in the 1990s. UBS even said the Fed的 forward guidance, which is now under review, has decreased market volatility over the last two decades.
相比之下，中国,在三十多年前才推出股票市场,，并且一直不享有透明度的声誉。从2015年人民币意外贬值，到近年来对课外辅导和跨境股票交易,的打击，北京'的许多政策举措在外人看来显得很突然。
China, in contrast, only launched its stock markets just over three decades ago, and has not had a reputation for transparency. From a surprise yuan devaluation in 2015 to crackdowns in recent years on after-school tutoring and cross-border stock trading, many of Beijing的 policy moves appear abrupt to outsiders.
由于量化交易,，市场波动性't，但有时"完全出乎意料"政策信息披露, 任说,指出，中国'的市场波动率"远高于"欧洲或日本—这两个受美国投资者欢迎的海外市场。
Market volatility isn't due to quantitative trading, but sometimes "totally unexpected" policy information disclosure, Ren said, noting China的 market swings are "way higher" than in Europe or Japan — two overseas markets popular with U.S. investors.
在中国表示正在调查该在线预订公司涉嫌垄断行为后，贝莱德, 等主要投资者的 Trip.com, 股价在一月份的一天内暴跌近 20%。
Shares of Trip.com, whose top investors include BlackRock, plunged nearly 20% in one day in January after China said it was investigating the online booking company for alleged monopolistic practices.
5 月 22 日，在中国重新打击允许中国大陆人士交易海外股票的服务后，富途股价下跌超过 27%。 UP Fintech 股价当天下跌超过 25%。
Futu shares dropped by more than 27% on May 22 after China的 renewed crackdown on services that enabled people in mainland China to trade overseas stocks. UP Fintech shares fell by more than 25% that day.
更引人注目的是,，就在 2021 年 6 月软银支持的滴滴出行在美国首次公开募股几天后,，这家叫车公司在中国面临网络安全调查和应用程序暂停,，导致股价长达数月的下跌，并最终, 退市。尽管宣布了计划，但滴滴尚未在香港重新上市。
More strikingly, just days after the SoftBank-backed Didi IPO in the U.S. in June 2021, the ride-hailing company faced a cybersecurity probe and app suspension in China, leading to a months-long stock decline and ultimately, delisting. Didi has yet to relist in Hong Kong despite announcing plans to.
尽管分析师在回顾时指出，警告信号很明显,，但投资者不一定要在事后才意识到它们。
While analysts note in retrospect that warning signs were clear, investors did not necessarily grasp them until after the fact.
任正非指出，去年初 DeepSeek R1 发布, 后以及最近几天 7 月中旬 Kimi K3 型号推出后，中国股市如何攀升。 "The more good headlines come out, then it will kind of neutralize some of the Chinese government regulations or abrupt regulations," she said.
Ren noted how China stocks climbed early last year after the DeepSeek R1 release, and in recent days after the Kimi K3 model launch in mid-July. "The more good headlines come out, then it will kind of neutralize some of the Chinese government regulations or abrupt regulations," she said.
总体而言，中国股市的回报率尚未超过美国股票和债券，不足以吸引大量愿意忽视风险的资本。
Chinese stocks overall have yet to generate returns that exceed U.S. stocks and bonds enough to attract significant amounts of capital willing to overlook the risks.
贝莱德投资研究所对中国股票保持中立看法，并将人工智能相关机会视为特定股票的,，而不是区域,。
BlackRock Investment Institute has kept a neutral view on Chinese stocks and views AI-related opportunities as stock-specific, rather than regional, plays.
另类芯片公司如长鑫存储 — 是一家国有存储芯片公司，上周在上海— 首次上市时股价飙升近 470%,，这使得大多数外国投资者难以进入。
And alternative chip plays such as CXMT — a state-backed memory chip company that surged nearly 470% in its debut last week — listed in Shanghai, making it difficult for most foreign investors to access.
全球股指巨头MSCI很快宣布,，然而,长鑫存储将于8月10日被纳入MSCI中国全股指数，为追踪该指数的境外基金买入敞口铺平道路。
Global stock index giant MSCI quickly announced, however, that CXMT would be added to the MSCI China All Shares Index on Aug. 10, paving the way for foreign funds tracking the index to buy exposure.
正如前高盛银行家 Fred Hu, 现在 Primavera Capital, 董事长告诉我的新加坡同事 Anniek Bao 最近, 金融, 而不是 AI, 是北京 最大的挑战。而金融正是最需要沟通和信任的。
As former Goldman Sachs banker Fred Hu, now chairman of Primavera Capital, told my colleague Anniek Bao in Singapore recently, finance, not AI, is Beijing的 biggest challenge. And it的 finance that requires the most communication and trust.
需要知道
Need to know
中国'报告芯片突破但也有一些重大警告
China的 reported chip breakthrough comes with some big caveats
目前尚不清楚使用国产 DUV 机器的中国制造商是否能提供接近或高于 ASML 机器的芯片产量。如果产量不接近 ASML 机器可以提供, 的产量，可能会阻碍中国的 机器的采用。
It is currently unclear whether a Chinese manufacturer using the homegrown DUV machine will deliver a chip yield close to or above that of a machine from ASML. If the yield is not close to what ASML machines can provide, that might hamper the adoption of China的 machine.
美国希望亚洲使用其人工智能 — 但中国在更便宜的型号中占据主导地位
The U.S. wants Asia to use its AI — but China dominates cheaper models
美国启动了一项出口计划和其他举措，以支持美国人工智能在亚洲的发展。但在第一次 APEC AI 会议和第二次, 之间，美国明显变得安静了。
The U.S. has launched an export program and other initiatives to bolster American AI in Asia. But between the first APEC AI meeting and the second, the U.S. has grown noticeably quieter.
中国威胁对美国仿人机器人禁令进行报复,称其'严重损害'关系
China threatens retaliation against U.S. humanoid robot ban, says it 的everely damages relations
FCC加大对中国商品的限制,"严重损害中美关系经济和贸易稳定," 中国的商务部周四通过CNBC翻译的一份在线声明表示。该部敦促美国撤回决定,，并威胁称，如果不撤回，将采取反制措施。
As the FCC escalates restrictions on Chinese goods, it "severely damages China-U.S. economic and trade stability," China的 commerce ministry said via a CNBC translation of an online statement Thursday. The ministry urged the U.S. to withdraw the decision, and threatened countermeasures if it failed to do so.
Coming up
8月5:RatingDog中国服务业PMI
Aug. 5: RatingDog China Services PMI
8月7:中国贸易数据
Aug. 7: China trade data
8月9日:中国CPI, PPI
Aug. 9: China CPI, PPI
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